No Uncertain Terms
The cost of chaos, responding to the e-invoicing consultation, and how to help us investigate incubators
As each of the last seven days has shown, we live in uncertain times. All the evidence points in one direction – this is bad for business.
Periods of high political uncertainty often see a drop in new business formation and innovation. When entrepreneurs suspect that a government might change tax rates, industry regulations, trade tariffs, or spending priorities, this policy volatility makes it hard to forecast future returns. As a result, startup launches are delayed, investment and expansion plans are postponed, hiring slows, investors and lenders retrench, and R&D is reduced (though read on for an important caveat). The longer this uncertainty lasts, the bigger the hit to productivity.
The impact isn’t as easy to spot as bond yields and stock markets, but the fallout is just as real. For example, using the unexpected policy regime shift following Trump’s first term as President, researchers show that policy uncertainty had a negative impact on high-growth startups in terms of patent applications and VC funding, particularly for startups that were unexpectedly denied new H-1B workers despite winning the H-1B visa lottery for new hires.
It’s not just Trump. Uncertainty around Brexit reduced levels of equity investment and cut the UK’s employment growth by about 1.5 percentage points relative to what it would have been without the uncertainty.
Today, political uncertainty hangs heavy over the next Budget, with many entrepreneurs expecting further tax rises. In fact, I even heard from a handful of founders who rushed through the sale of their businesses in response to whispers that Capital Gains Tax was going to be changed in the Spring Statement.
There is, as Adam Smith rightly wrote, a great deal of ruin in a nation. It should be noted that we often see modest bounce-back when uncertainty is alleviated, as businesses rush to make the investments or hires they had delayed. That’s what we saw in early 2020 when a no-deal Brexit was off the table.
There is another interesting counterpoint worth pondering on too. Recent research suggests some firms increase their investment in R&D during spells of uncertainty as a strategic move. This isn’t a call for chaos, but it may offer a guide at the firm level on how to compete in uncertain times.
Ultimately, the longer this uncertainty lasts, the greater the risk of missed opportunities and economic scarring. My guess is as good as yours as to what happens next, but one thing is for sure: no group is better equipped to deal with uncertainty than entrepreneurs.
E-Voicing Your Views
On Wednesday, we hosted a webinar with Enterprise Nation to hear entrepreneurs’ views on the Government’s plans to mainstream e-invoicing among British businesses. Together, we’re preparing a submission to the Government’s consultation, and we’re particularly keen to know what business owners think the pros and cons of moving towards e-invoicing could be, and how they think it should be rolled out. If you didn’t manage to join us, but would still like to feed into our submission, get in touch with Eamonn – but be quick, the window to respond closes soon.
Accelerating Excellence
We’re investigating the UK’s incubator and accelerator landscape, to see how effectively it is serving startups and what could be done to create a better support system for them. If you’ve engaged with these as a founder, operate such a programme yourself, or have ecosystem-wide insights, we’d value your perspective on what’s working and what isn’t. To share your insights and help shape our recommendations, please drop Anastasia a line.
Message from our Partner
Growing businesses often find themselves stuck - too complex for digital banks, yet too fast-moving for traditional ones. That’s where OakNorth comes in. Built for entrepreneurs, by entrepreneurs, we blend the agility of cutting-edge digital banking with the security and expertise of a commercial bank. We operate in the top 1% of commercial banks globally, and we are set up to help businesses thrive.
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Built for scale – Apply for a business account in minutes and start transacting in days, not weeks.
Flexible account setup – Fee-free accounts - including high-value payments, multi-company management with a single login, payment approvals, and free Visa debit cards for your team.
Competitive savings rates – Earn up to 4.25% AER on business savings.¹
UK-regulated bank – Your eligible deposits are FSCS protected.
A partner, not just a provider – Get direct access to a dedicated Business Partner.
Funding for the future – Access to specialist structured finance designed for ambitious businesses.
Looking to scale your business with a partner who understands growth? Book a chat with one of our Business Partners here or click below to learn more.
¹ 3.10% AER on easy-access savings and 4.25% AER on a separate 95-day notice account. Variable rates correct as of 24-Mar-25.
Here to Help
What is holding back your business from growing? If it’s a policy issue, we will let policymakers know. If it’s not, we may be able to put you in touch with someone from our network who can help.
Our Next Events
Future of Work: The University Student to Entrepreneur Pipeline
🗓 Wednesday, 23 April 2025
🕐 4pm to 5pm
📍Online
ℹ️ A virtual exchange between universities, business owners and investors to discuss how best to support the future founders currently in education in the UK
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Young Entrepreneurs Forum: London Meetup
🗓 Thursday, 1 May 2025
🕐 6pm to 8pm
📍 Shoreditch, London
ℹ️ A social in London for the Young Entrepreneurs Forum
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Young Entrepreneurs Forum: Cambridge Meetup
🗓 Thursday, 7 May 2025
🕐 6pm to 8pm
📍 Cambridge
ℹ️ A social in London for the Young Entrepreneurs Forum
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News and Views
Britain’s economy expanded in the three months to February – just
President Trump announced a temporary halt to his ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs
We published our twenty-eighth instalment of Three Big Ideas
Our Patron Steve Rigby has been become Chair at Family Business UK (FBUK)
John Fingleton will spearhead the Nuclear Regulatory Taskforce
A trade agreement between India and the UK is nearing completion
The inaugural meeting of the Government’s AI Energy Council took place
Measures to grant better and faster access to NHS data for researchers will accelerate drug development, according to the Government
High risk, high reward funding agency ARIA welcomed their next batch of Programme Directors
Coming soon(ish) to Britain – a new theme park to rival Disneyland Paris
Could an alternative to the ‘Silicon Valley model’ be the way forward for innovative startups?
Plans to liberalise rules for private equity and hedge funds were set out
A creative way of funding medical trials could pay dividends, argues Dominic Nutt
Britain needs more homes but amendments in the Planning and Infrastructure Bill put higher construction rates at risk, says Sam Dumitriu
How evolutionary psychology, cognitive biases and moral framing influence explain why humans distrust modern technology
Friends of the Network
Works in Progress Invisible College 2025
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🗓 Monday, 4 to 9 August 2025
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rev™ London AI with Google Cloud – Top AI funds pitch to you!
🗓 Tuesday, 29 April 2025
🕓 2.30pm to 7.30pm
📍 Level39 Canary Wharf London
ℹ️ rev™ is a reverse-pitching event, where investors pitch to founders
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FounderFuel LIVE: Are you Communicating Clearly as a Founder?
🗓 Wednesday, 30 April 2025
🕓 1pm to 2pm
📍 Online
ℹ️ This event will feature communications expert Ed Staite, who’s worked with Presidents, PMs and top CEOs, talking about founder communication tips
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An Introduction to Employee Stock Ownership
🗓 Thursday, 8 May 2025
🕓 1pm to 2pm
📍 Online
ℹ️ Hear how offering your employees shares in your business can help retain top talent
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Best wishes,
Philip
Philip Salter
Founder
The Entrepreneurs Network